Tuesday, October 11, 2005

Iraq Election

Iraq is holding an election on ratifying the Constitution this Saturday. Here's my armchair analysis of the ideal scenario:

Large voter turnout, especially in Sunni areas, results in not getting the Constitution ratified. Ideally, it gets turned down by significant portion of all voters, but even if it's only 2/3 of Sunni provinces that defeat it, that would be beneficial as well. Then the Sunni's participate in the elections for a new parliament charged with writing a new draft. With the sting of the defeat of the first draft in their minds, the new parliament provides a better constitution that can be ratified by all of Iraq and ultimately lead to stability.

This would be ideal because the current draft is significantly flawed. This scenario also makes it quite clear that Sunni's will have a voice in the government. The more actively the Sunni's are engaged in government and legitimate politics, the weaker the insurgency becomes. Of course, the extremists would become even more desperate, temporarlily leading to greater violence. But they would truly be last ditch efforts, unlikely to succeed. This scenario also does nothing to bring the date when our troops can come home closer. But ultimately a stronger Iraq is the best way to make sure our troops don't need to return.


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